Bleach
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$147.14
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $138.31 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
114.34%
13 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 13 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/bleach/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $147 | 94.00% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $152 | 91.29% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $152 | 93.81% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 18.8%legendary 3.1%covert 14.8%contraband 0.0%covert knife 9.5%#eb4b4b 1.9%sunny 3.9%rare 9.8%classified 18.8%Legendary 8.6%restricted 3.9%red 3.8%#d32ce6 3.0%best hit $1,079 (7.33x)