Breakout

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$1.99

Advertised RTP

94.62%

EV $1.88 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.65%

384 openings, sample method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

31.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

41.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

384 openings · below min

30 days

384 openings · below min

since tracking started

384 openings · below min

82.0%90.8%99.5%

Small sample. 384 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	384	90.65%±8.06	—	sample
30d	384	90.65%±8.06	—	sample
All	384	90.65%±8.06	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 384 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 166,667	$247	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 125,000	$194	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 111,111	$184	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 111,111	$180	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 111,111	$174	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 16,949	$51.01	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 12,821	$43.72	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,020	$23.71	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,339	$21.13	0.8%	1	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,195	$20.73	0.9%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,176	$20.72	0.9%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,221	$20.36	0.9%	0	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,224	$19.80	0.9%	0	0.3	—
P2000 \| Ivory (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 113	$8.71	4.1%	2	3.4	0.59×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$6.37	3.4%	6	3.9	1.56×
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 46	$4.04	4.7%	11	8.4	1.31×
Nova \| Koi (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$2.89	6.0%	14	15.1	0.93×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$2.88	5.5%	14	13.8	1.01×
P250 \| Supernova (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$2.76	6.0%	10	15.6	0.64×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$2.58	6.5%	21	18.1	1.16×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$2.38	7.1%	21	21.7	0.97×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 19	$2.31	6.5%	14	20.2	0.69×
Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$2.30	7.0%	27	22.0	1.23×
P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 19	$2.30	6.6%	18	20.6	0.87×
Nova \| Koi (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$2.29	6.4%	20	20.1	1.00×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$2.29	6.3%	19	19.9	0.95×
P250 \| Supernova (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 19	$2.28	6.5%	22	20.5	1.07×
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 18	$0.97	2.8%	23	20.9	1.10×
MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 18	$0.90	2.7%	21	21.6	0.97×
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$0.49	1.2%	19	17.6	1.08×
Negev \| Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 22	$0.43	1.0%	15	17.2	0.87×
UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 23	$0.41	1.0%	15	16.9	0.89×
P2000 \| Ivory (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 23	$0.38	0.9%	17	16.5	1.03×
MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 23	$0.35	0.8%	18	16.4	1.10×
UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 24	$0.33	0.7%	20	16.0	1.25×
Negev \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 24	$0.31	0.7%	16	15.8	1.01×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/breakout/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.