Bum
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.69
Advertised RTP
93.70%
EV $2.52 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.60%
3,066 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
56.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 93.67% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.58% – 102.61%, 3,066 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,066 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/bum/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.70%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.69 | 93.70% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.72 | 92.67% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.72 | 93.97% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%epic 0.0%gold 0.0%red 0.1%#ffd700 0.0%Immortal 0.0%#d32ce6 1.3%rare 0.2%#d32ee6 0.9%classified 8.9%pink 23.3%uncommon 1.4%Legendary 2.3%Mythical 2.0%violet 18.1%blueLight 6.5%Mil Spec 7.0%restricted 17.9%blue 10.0%best hit $185 (68.75x)