Butterfly

A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$1,129.99

Advertised RTP

97.72%

EV $1,104.19 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

145.77%

16 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

53.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

8 openings · below min

7 days

16 openings · below min

30 days

16 openings · below min

since tracking started

16 openings · below min

97.0%158.0%219.0%

Small sample. 16 openings and 5.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8	170.44%±48.0	—	odds
7d	16	145.77%±34.0	—	odds
30d	16	145.77%±34.0	—	odds
All	16	145.77%±34.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 4,405	$11.5K	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 3,546	$11.3K	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,167	$7,653	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 787	$7,283	0.8%	1	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 303	$4,890	1.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 265	$4,349	1.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 117	$3,591	2.8%	1	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 95	$2,943	2.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 62	$2,561	3.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 48	$2,208	4.2%	1	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 35	$1,874	4.9%	0	0.7	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 26	$1,635	5.6%	0	0.9	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 18	$1,631	8.1%	1	1.3	0.76×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 12	$1,485	11.0%	2	2.0	1.02×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 18	$1,452	7.2%	2	1.3	1.52×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 15	$1,394	8.5%	2	1.6	1.24×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 14	$1,286	8.4%	2	1.7	1.15×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 24	$1,034	3.9%	2	1.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 24	$877	3.3%	1	1.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 24	$703	2.6%	2	1.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 24	$645	2.4%	0	1.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 24	$532	2.0%	0	1.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 24	$483	1.8%	2	1.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 24	$477	1.8%	0	1.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 24	$473	1.8%	1	1.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 24	$457	1.7%	1	1.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 24	$449	1.7%	1	1.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 24	$449	1.7%	2	1.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 24	$444	1.7%	0	1.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 24	$435	1.6%	0	1.0	—

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/butterfly/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.