Cache

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$10.99

Advertised RTP

91.64%

EV $10.07 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d

99.62%

133 openings, sample method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

48.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

9 openings · below min

7 days

133 openings · below min

30 days

133 openings · below min

since tracking started

133 openings · below min

50.5%96.8%143.0%

Small sample. 133 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	9	96.83%±45.4	—	odds
7d	133	99.62%±12.6	—	sample
30d	133	99.62%±12.6	—	sample
All	133	99.62%±12.6	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 133 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
FAMAS \| Styx (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 11,236	$160	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,576	$125	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 366	$51.26	1.4%	1	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 370	$48.69	1.3%	0	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 163	$36.31	2.2%	2	0.8	—
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 159	$35.14	2.2%	1	0.8	—
Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$26.38	3.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 61	$22.09	3.6%	2	2.2	0.91×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 58	$21.91	3.8%	2	2.3	0.87×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 42	$18.87	4.5%	4	3.2	1.26×
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 28	$18.30	6.4%	7	4.7	1.50×
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 31	$17.14	5.6%	7	4.4	1.61×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 24	$15.84	6.5%	4	5.5	0.72×
XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 21	$14.19	6.6%	5	6.3	0.80×
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$14.10	6.5%	9	6.2	1.46×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 18	$13.36	7.3%	5	7.3	0.69×
PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$12.06	6.0%	8	6.6	1.20×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 12	$11.28	9.2%	14	11.0	1.28×
XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 27	$11.02	4.1%	6	5.0	1.21×
FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$8.88	3.3%	4	5.0	0.81×
Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 27	$7.41	2.7%	3	5.0	0.61×
P250 \| Contamination (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 27	$5.74	2.1%	1	5.0	0.20×
SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 27	$4.93	1.8%	4	5.0	0.81×
Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 27	$4.22	1.6%	4	5.0	0.81×
PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 27	$3.59	1.3%	4	5.0	0.81×
Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 27	$3.44	1.3%	4	5.0	0.81×
SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 27	$3.16	1.2%	6	5.0	1.21×
AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 27	$2.96	1.1%	7	5.0	1.41×
PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 27	$2.17	0.8%	7	5.0	1.41×
AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 27	$1.94	0.7%	4	5.0	0.81×
P250 \| Contamination (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 27	$1.93	0.7%	2	5.0	0.40×
SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 27	$1.77	0.7%	6	5.0	1.21×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/cache/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.