Casebattle
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$62.97
Advertised RTP
93.99%
EV $59.19 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
62.39%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/casebattle/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $62.97 | 93.99% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $64.20 | 92.19% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $64.20 | 94.27% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.7%covert 0.2%extraordinary 3.0%classified 6.9%gold 0.0%restricted 5.3%#ffd700 0.0%sunny 0.1%Covert 0.2%Immortal 1.1%epic 1.8%Legendary 13.8%industrial 8.4%red 26.1%rare 21.2%pink 6.1%#d32ce6 5.2%best hit —