Casehardened
A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$199.99
Advertised RTP
93.69%
EV $187.36 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
59.68%
7 openings, odds method
Variance
0.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 7 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/casehardened/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.69%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $200 | 93.69% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $200 | 94.00% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 34.9%Immortal 2.6%covert knife 8.4%gold 27.1%classified 6.2%extraordinary 8.4%restricted 8.4%Mythical 4.2%best hit $616 (3.08x)