Change
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.41
Advertised RTP
93.26%
EV $0.38 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.12%
16.3K openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/change/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.26%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.41 | 93.26% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.42 | 91.04% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.42 | 91.86% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%rare 0.0%Ancient 0.0%classified 0.1%#d32ee6 0.0%Restricted 0.0%Legendary 0.0%pink 0.4%violet 7.7%#d32ce6 0.2%blue 12.8%common 11.4%Rare 10.2%#8847ff 1.7%mil spec 13.6%#4b69ff 12.8%Uncommon 14.2%#b0c3d9 14.8%best hit —