Cheap
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$1.68
Advertised RTP
93.88%
EV $1.58 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.72%
7,541 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,541 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/cheap/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.68 | 93.88% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.73 | 91.17% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.73 | 91.27% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%Covert 0.0%covert 0.0%red 0.0%rare 1.1%Ancient 0.0%classified 1.9%#4b69ff 6.3%Mythical 0.3%#d32ce6 3.5%Classified 0.7%pink 4.5%Legendary 1.5%#d32ee6 1.4%restricted 10.4%violet 25.5%blueLight 5.9%milspec 17.6%#8847ff 8.6%Uncommon 10.8%best hit —