Clutch c

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$2.49
Advertised RTP
92.47%
EV $2.30 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.99%
387 openings, sample method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
57.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
4 openings · below min
7 days
387 openings · below min
30 days
387 openings · below min
since tracking started
387 openings · below min
-0.5%115.8%232.0%

Small sample. 387 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h4108.53%±122.8—odds
7d38791.99%±11.4—sample
30d38791.99%±11.4—sample
All38791.99%±11.4—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 387 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 200,000$3610.1%00.0—
★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary1 in 111,111$2310.1%00.0—
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary1 in 66,667$1740.1%00.0—
★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 33,333$1130.1%00.0—
★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 15,385$81.580.2%00.0—
★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape (Minimal Wear)gloves · #ffd7001 in 7,299$62.270.4%00.1—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 1,686$34.990.9%10.2—
★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,277$32.731.1%10.3—
MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,401$32.031.0%00.3—
★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,250$29.471.0%00.3—
★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,302$29.261.0%00.3—
USP-S | Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 1,176$27.431.0%00.3—
AWP | Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 99$9.784.3%23.90.51×
AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 56$7.185.5%86.91.17×
USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 56$6.705.2%56.90.72×
AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 33$4.786.2%1111.60.95×
AUG | Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 24$4.387.8%1615.81.01×
USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 22$3.657.4%1618.00.89×
AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 18$3.378.0%2621.11.23×
AUG | Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 17$3.258.4%2123.10.91×
MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 16$3.218.5%1923.60.80×
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 12$2.709.7%3631.91.13×
UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 24$1.843.3%1715.91.07×
Nova | Wild Six (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 24$1.632.9%1715.91.07×
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 24$1.372.4%1415.90.88×
Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 24$1.242.2%2815.91.76×
P2000 | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 24$0.971.7%2015.91.26×
MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 24$0.891.6%1315.90.82×
MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 24$0.821.5%1615.91.01×
UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 24$0.701.2%1115.90.69×
Nova | Wild Six (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 24$0.601.1%2015.91.26×
Negev | Lionfish (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 24$0.601.1%1215.90.76×
Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 24$0.480.9%1615.91.01×
MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 24$0.450.8%1215.90.76×
PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 24$0.370.7%1415.90.88×
Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 24$0.360.6%1515.90.94×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/clutch_c/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.47%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
6 Nov, 05:23 UTC$2.4992.47%36
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$2.4994.00%36
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.2%Extraordinary 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%Ancient 0.1%covert 0.1%classified 13.7%Legendary 10.0%#d32ee6 4.1%Mythical 14.3%restricted 28.8%Rare 8.2%#8847ff 12.3%milspec 4.1%mil spec 4.1%best hit —