Comatozze

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$0.17
Advertised RTP
92.47%
EV $0.16 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.70%
7,904 openings, odds method
Variance
4.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
78.41%±33.13167 openings
7 days
92.80%±6.364,647 openings
30 days
95.70%±5.017,904 openings
since tracking started
95.70%±5.017,904 openings
44.5%78.3%112.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h16778.41%±33.1−0.8σodds
7d4,64792.80%±6.36−0.3σodds
30d7,90495.70%±5.01+0.8σodds
All7,90495.70%±5.01+0.8σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,905 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,000,000$2220.1%00.0—
★ Kukri Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal1 in 1,000,000$1930.1%00.0—
★ Huntsman Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 1,000,000$67.350.0%00.0—
★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 1,000,000$50.590.0%00.0—
AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,000,000$42.880.0%00.0—
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 500,000$24.670.0%00.0—
AWP | Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 333,333$19.560.0%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 250,000$18.090.0%00.0—
AWP | Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon1 in 250,000$17.790.0%00.0—
MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 142,857$11.790.1%00.1—
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 38,462$6.820.1%00.2—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 58,824$6.820.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 25,641$5.060.1%00.3—
AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 22,222$4.780.1%00.4—
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified1 in 9,709$3.660.2%20.8—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 8,621$3.540.3%10.9—
FAMAS | Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 4,132$2.620.4%01.90.00×
Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 2,695$2.400.6%52.91.70×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 2,571$2.270.6%43.11.30×
CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 2,725$2.170.5%12.90.34×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 2,793$2.100.5%72.82.47×
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 681$1.321.2%1611.61.38×
AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 737$1.181.0%1510.71.40×
Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 429$1.131.7%2118.41.14×
Sticker | NQZ | Shanghai 2024sticker1 in 138$0.693.2%6257.51.08×
P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 127$0.603.0%6862.01.10×
G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 108$0.553.2%7773.21.05×
AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 96$0.513.4%8782.61.05×
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted1 in 108$0.513.0%6573.20.89×
AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 67$0.413.9%124117.21.06×
MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 52$0.374.5%142150.90.94×
M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 62$0.373.8%141126.91.11×
R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 31 in 43$0.324.7%190183.31.04×
CZ75-Auto | Circaetus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 25$0.235.9%299317.20.94×
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 16$0.207.7%500479.31.04×
AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight1 in 16$0.197.4%456482.20.95×
Glock-18 | Green Line (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 16$0.186.9%499479.21.04×
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 15$0.177.1%531521.51.02×
MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 15$0.145.9%481521.50.92×
AUG | Steel Sentinel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 16$0.103.9%491482.21.02×
Sticker | Clown Wigsticker · #4b69ff1 in 17$0.093.4%506472.51.07×
M4A4 | Choppa (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 16$0.093.5%491482.21.02×
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 18$0.062.1%428436.90.98×
MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 17$0.062.3%478472.51.01×
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 20$0.041.3%410404.11.01×
Sticker | zont1x | Shanghai 2024sticker1 in 22$0.030.9%330353.50.93×
Sticker | Passion UA | Shanghai 2024sticker1 in 22$0.020.6%364353.51.03×
Sticker | Perfect World | Shanghai 2024sticker · Rare1 in 26$0.010.2%275309.10.89×
Sticker | Grayhound Gaming | Paris 2023sticker · 71 in 22$0.010.3%338353.50.96×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/comatozze/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.47%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$0.1792.47%49
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$0.1698.25%49
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$0.1693.29%49
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 2.3%7 4.5%covert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%covert knife 0.0%gold 0.0%classified 0.0%industrial 0.0%restricted 0.2%uncommon 0.0%#8847ff 0.0%pink 0.0%Legendary 0.0%Classified 0.0%Restricted 0.9%violet 4.7%Mythical 0.9%other 9.7%#4b69ff 17.1%blue 20.2%blueLight 6.1%Uncommon 12.1%#5e98d9 11.2%Common 6.0%Rare 3.9%best hit —