Control
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$21.99
Advertised RTP
89.66%
EV $19.72 from 34 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.41%
35 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 35 openings and 9.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 65 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/control/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.66%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $21.99 | 89.66% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $21.99 | 94.00% | 34 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.2%restricted 3.7%violet 1.8%#8847ff 2.3%blue 7.5%Rare 21.8%light blue 7.6%Mil Spec Grade 13.8%mil spec 9.2%#4b69ff 4.6%industrial 4.6%Consumer Grade 4.6%Industrial 4.6%gray 4.6%Uncommon 4.6%Industrial Grade 4.6%best hit —