Crimsonweb
A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$339.99
Advertised RTP
91.67%
EV $311.67 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
17.65%
5 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
28.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
55.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 5 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/crimsonweb/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.67%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $340 | 91.67% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $340 | 94.00% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedknifes 1.0%covert 74.6%Covert 0.2%legendary 6.3%extraordinary 5.0%gold 4.3%restricted 8.6%best hit —