Crypt

A case on CSGORUN (halloween2026), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$15.00
Advertised RTP
101.16%
EV $15.17 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
103.48%
763 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
105.10%±10.68353 openings
30 days
103.48%±7.24763 openings
since tracking started
103.48%±7.24763 openings
94.0%105.3%116.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d353105.10%±10.7+0.7σodds
30d763103.48%±7.24+0.6σodds
All763103.48%±7.24+0.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 763 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A4 | Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 166,667$1,2310.0%00.0—
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 66,667$6350.1%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · sunny1 in 31,250$5050.1%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 15,152$3720.2%00.1—
★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 6,135$2480.3%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,591$1830.5%00.3—
★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd7001 in 966$1210.8%10.8—
★ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 577$1061.2%31.32.27×
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 358$87.201.6%22.10.94×
★ Paracord Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 216$72.602.2%53.51.42×
SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 151$60.322.6%55.10.99×
P90 | Shallow Grave (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 121$50.892.8%106.31.58×
P250 | Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 82$39.873.2%99.30.97×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 72$36.493.4%1010.70.94×
XM1014 | Ancient Lore (Factory New)weapon · Restricted1 in 60$33.703.7%1612.71.26×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 22$33.4810.0%3334.70.95×
USP-S | Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 47$32.114.5%1716.41.04×
USP-S | Royal Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 17$27.0510.7%4946.01.07×
FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 47$25.813.6%1716.11.05×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 34$22.794.5%2522.71.10×
MAC-10 | Graven (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 22$19.345.7%3034.00.88×
AUG | Sand Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 28$18.794.4%2527.40.91×
P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 25$17.644.6%2330.00.77×
Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 18$13.334.9%4142.80.96×
Nova | Quick Sand (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 20$11.433.8%5238.31.36×
XM1014 | Bone Machine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 19$11.023.7%4139.41.04×
P90 | ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 20$9.413.1%3038.60.78×
Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 22$8.372.5%2934.80.83×
M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 24$7.442.0%2531.80.79×
Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 25$6.611.7%2230.10.73×
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 26$6.391.6%3229.01.10×
Galil AR | Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 28$6.291.5%3027.51.09×
SSG 08 | Red Stone (Field-Tested)weapon · common1 in 31$4.831.0%2424.90.97×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 31$4.691.0%2624.71.05×
AWP | Black Nile (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 34$4.190.8%2022.20.90×
MAC-10 | Button Masher (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 39$2.740.5%1519.50.77×
UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 44$2.530.4%1717.50.97×
MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 49$1.890.3%1315.50.84×
SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 65$1.250.1%2311.71.97×
SG 553 | Phantom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 68$1.220.1%1411.21.25×
XM1014 | Blue Tire (Factory New)weapon · gray1 in 53$0.900.1%1514.31.05×
SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 78$0.830.1%149.71.44×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/crypt/show, 8 Nov, 19:51 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 101.16%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
4 Nov, 04:54 UTC$15.00101.16%42
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$15.00101.48%42
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 11.4%#eb4b4b 0.0%sunny 0.0%restricted 13.0%covert 0.5%#ffd700 0.1%gold 0.2%Legendary 0.8%pink 1.2%Ancient 1.4%Restricted 1.7%#8847ff 8.5%industrial 6.0%Mythical 11.8%violet 8.0%mil spec 12.8%Mil Spec Grade 8.6%Uncommon 4.6%common 3.3%blue 2.9%gray 1.9%#4b69ff 1.3%best hit —