Daggers
A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$59.99
Advertised RTP
92.48%
EV $55.48 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.19%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 6.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/daggers/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.48%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $59.99 | 92.48% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $59.99 | 94.00% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 61.8%Covert 6.1%gold 20.4%Immortal 5.9%covert knife 5.9%best hit —