Deathnote
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$42.42
Advertised RTP
93.99%
EV $39.87 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
55.04%
11 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 11 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/deathnote/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $42.42 | 93.99% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $43.83 | 90.96% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $43.83 | 92.92% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.3%legendary 0.0%Covert 0.0%extraordinary 3.7%gold 3.6%rare 11.4%#ffd700 0.7%covert knife 11.0%sunny 3.1%red 12.3%Restricted 7.1%classified 14.9%Industrial Grade 5.3%violet 4.9%restricted 8.1%#d32ce6 4.2%pink 4.0%#8847ff 3.3%best hit —