Diamond

A case on CSGORUN (vipcases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$619.43

Advertised RTP

90.75%

EV $562.13 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.27%

87 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

87 openings · below min

30 days

87 openings · below min

since tracking started

87 openings · below min

37.0%100.3%163.5%

Small sample. 87 openings and 17.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	100.46%±62.6	—	odds
7d	87	82.27%±21.2	—	odds
30d	87	82.27%±21.2	—	odds
All	87	82.27%±21.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 87 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,686	$8,522	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,242	$7,283	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 125	$3,126	4.5%	0	0.7	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 146	$3,100	3.8%	0	0.6	—
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 79	$2,218	5.0%	4	1.1	3.64×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 68	$2,171	5.7%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 55	$1,695	5.5%	2	1.6	1.26×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$1,382	6.9%	3	2.4	1.23×
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 32	$1,331	7.5%	3	2.8	1.09×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 37	$1,265	6.1%	1	2.4	0.42×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 20	$911	8.2%	0	4.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	10.2%	$545	9.9%	7	8.8	0.79×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10	$477	8.4%	12	8.6	1.40×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10	$435	7.4%	3	8.3	0.36×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 11	$379	6.1%	12	7.9	1.53×
★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 12	$287	4.2%	6	7.2	0.83×
★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 13	$208	2.8%	11	6.6	1.67×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14	$165	2.0%	7	6.1	1.16×
★ Sport Gloves \| Red Racer (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 16	$138	1.6%	7	5.6	1.26×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 16	$133	1.5%	7	5.6	1.25×
★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 17	$108	1.1%	2	5.1	0.39×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/diamond/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.