Doppler

A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$394.99

Advertised RTP

92.74%

EV $366.31 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.88%

45 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

54.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

45 openings · below min

30 days

45 openings · below min

since tracking started

45 openings · below min

61.5%84.8%108.0%

Small sample. 45 openings and 13.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	45	84.88%±22.7	—	odds
30d	45	84.88%±22.7	—	odds
All	45	84.88%±22.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 4,310	$4,349	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,429	$3,591	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 1,075	$2,943	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 518	$2,590	1.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 280	$1,765	1.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · #ffd700 · Phase 4	1 in 194	$1,551	2.2%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 135	$1,244	2.5%	1	0.3	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 91	$1,137	3.4%	0	0.5	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 67	$911	3.7%	1	0.7	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 54	$848	4.3%	1	0.8	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 37	$718	5.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 28	$629	6.0%	4	1.6	2.52×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 21	$542	6.9%	2	2.1	0.95×
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 15	$503	9.1%	1	3.0	0.33×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 17	$461	7.4%	0	2.6	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 13	$426	8.9%	2	3.4	0.58×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 12	$415	9.3%	6	3.7	1.63×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 24	$364	4.2%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 24	$289	3.3%	1	1.9	0.53×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 24	$244	2.8%	4	1.9	2.13×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 24	$231	2.6%	6	1.9	3.19×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 24	$183	2.1%	2	1.9	1.06×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 24	$171	2.0%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 24	$126	1.4%	2	1.9	1.06×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 24	$120	1.4%	2	1.9	1.06×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 24	$119	1.4%	1	1.9	0.53×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 24	$114	1.3%	1	1.9	0.53×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 24	$112	1.3%	5	1.9	2.66×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 24	$111	1.3%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 24	$111	1.3%	3	1.9	1.59×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/doppler/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.