Dust

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$59.99

Advertised RTP

95.60%

EV $57.35 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.79%

26 openings, sample method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

48.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

26 openings · below min

30 days

26 openings · below min

since tracking started

26 openings · below min

72.0%97.8%123.5%

Small sample. 26 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	26	97.79%±25.0	—	sample
30d	26	97.79%±25.0	—	sample
All	26	97.79%±25.0	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,505	$846	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 1,880	$614	0.6%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Snake Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 273	$338	2.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Predator (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 40	$125	5.4%	0	0.6	—
AUG \| Copperhead (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 41	$123	5.2%	1	0.6	—
Sawed-Off \| Copper (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$115	6.1%	3	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Brass (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$111	5.0%	0	0.7	—
AUG \| Copperhead (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 35	$110	5.4%	1	0.7	—
Sawed-Off \| Copper (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 29	$108	6.5%	0	0.9	—
Sawed-Off \| Copper (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 28	$102	6.4%	2	0.9	—
AWP \| Snake Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 28	$102	6.4%	0	0.9	—
SCAR-20 \| Palm (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 17	$74.47	7.8%	0	1.6	0.00×
AWP \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$69.22	8.8%	2	1.9	1.06×
M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 12	$67.02	9.5%	4	2.1	1.89×
P2000 \| Scorpion (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$60.84	6.4%	3	1.6	1.92×
Glock-18 \| Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$45.48	4.8%	0	1.6	0.00×
P2000 \| Scorpion (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$35.36	3.7%	2	1.6	1.28×
Glock-18 \| Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 17	$23.17	2.4%	0	1.6	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Palm (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 17	$15.25	1.6%	1	1.6	0.64×
AK-47 \| Predator (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$14.36	1.5%	2	1.6	1.28×
M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$14.33	1.5%	2	1.6	1.28×
AK-47 \| Predator (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$12.62	1.3%	2	1.6	1.28×
M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 17	$11.12	1.2%	1	1.6	0.64×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/dust/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.