Dust 2
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.15
Advertised RTP
85.48%
EV $0.13 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.50%
5,892 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 85.79% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.93% – 91.06%, 5,892 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,252 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/dust2/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.48%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.15 | 85.48% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.15 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedindustrial 26.1%classified 0.1%mil spec 1.6%milspec 6.2%Common 4.9%consumer 20.4%Consumer Grade 10.2%#8847ff 0.7%Mythical 1.2%Rare 6.3%Uncommon 13.0%#4b69ff 4.7%#87c7ff 4.7%best hit —