Dust 2021
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$15.99
Advertised RTP
91.34%
EV $14.61 from 32 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.00%
61 openings, sample method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 61 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 61 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/dust2021/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.34%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $15.99 | 91.34% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $15.99 | 94.00% | 32 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 4.3%covert 0.0%classified 0.2%restricted 14.3%Restricted 3.3%Mythical 8.8%Mil Spec Grade 17.1%blue 8.7%milspec 13.0%Rare 4.3%#4b69ff 8.7%Uncommon 13.0%gray 4.3%best hit —