Elclasico
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$1.09
Advertised RTP
93.96%
EV $1.02 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.23%
2,258 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,258 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/elclasico/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.09 | 93.96% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.10 | 93.11% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.10 | 94.46% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%rare 0.0%Immortal 0.0%Ancient 0.0%Legendary 2.0%classified 2.3%pink 6.1%uncommon 12.9%Mythical 5.9%Classified 0.3%#d32ee6 0.7%#4b69ff 6.5%#8847ff 22.6%Restricted 3.5%Rare 7.3%violet 7.4%blue 11.8%milspec 5.8%Uncommon 5.0%best hit $71.07 (64.61x)