Elections
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.59
Advertised RTP
93.97%
EV $2.43 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.96%
419 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 419 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/elections/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.59 | 93.97% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.60 | 93.61% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.60 | 93.24% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%classified 0.4%sunny 0.0%industrial 3.1%restricted 6.2%milspec 0.0%red 0.0%#4b69ff 0.3%mil spec 23.8%blue 7.6%Mythical 0.8%#8847ff 5.6%Restricted 0.8%Mil Spec Grade 5.6%consumer 5.3%Industrial 2.3%Common 4.0%Uncommon 8.8%violet 4.7%other 4.6%Rare 8.3%uncommon 4.2%Consumer Grade 3.7%best hit —