Emerald

A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$1,469.99

Advertised RTP

93.11%

EV $1,368.68 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

64.08%

9 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

9 openings · below min

30 days

9 openings · below min

since tracking started

9 openings · below min

-0.5%70.5%141.5%

Small sample. 9 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	9	64.08%±77.0	—	odds
30d	9	64.08%±77.0	—	odds
All	9	64.08%±77.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 46	$7,841	12.6%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 48	$7,653	11.7%	0	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 42	$7,120	12.5%	0	0.4	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	12.6%	$1,639	15.1%	4	2.1	1.87×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	15.5%	$1,474	16.7%	1	2.6	0.38×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	15.2%	$1,412	15.7%	4	2.6	1.55×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 11	$590	3.9%	1	1.5	0.65×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 11	$511	3.4%	3	1.5	1.95×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 13	$478	2.8%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 14	$426	2.2%	1	1.2	0.84×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 15	$357	1.8%	0	1.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 19	$255	1.0%	1	0.9	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 21	$207	0.7%	2	0.8	—

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/emerald/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.