Esports 2013
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$4.49
Advertised RTP
93.66%
EV $4.21 from 27 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.57%
84 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
28.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 84 openings and 23.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 119 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/esports2013/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.66%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $4.49 | 93.66% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $4.49 | 94.00% | 27 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%Covert 0.0%classified 0.1%#ffd700 0.1%restricted 2.1%gold 0.1%Rare 67.6%#8847ff 0.5%violet 0.5%Restricted 0.9%mil spec 24.9%blue 3.2%best hit —