Esports 2014
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.99
Advertised RTP
94.32%
EV $2.82 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.67%
84 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
41.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 84 openings and 35.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 131 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/esports2014/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.32%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $2.99 | 94.32% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.99 | 94.00% | 35 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 0.2%covert 0.0%covert knife 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%restricted 18.8%classified 0.2%violet 0.0%#d32ce6 0.0%Mythical 0.2%mil spec 53.2%#8847ff 2.2%Mil Spec Grade 8.3%Rare 16.7%best hit —