Falchionknife
A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$104.99
Advertised RTP
93.66%
EV $98.34 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
58.43%
3 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
36.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 3 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/falchionknife/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.66%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $105 | 93.66% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $105 | 94.00% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedknifes 0.0%covert 39.8%#ffd700 10.4%covert knife 39.2%Immortal 3.4%Covert 7.1%best hit —