Falcons ewc
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.82
Advertised RTP
93.43%
EV $0.77 from 48 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.39%
2,877 openings, odds method
Variance
4.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,877 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/falcons_ewc/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.43%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.82 | 93.43% | 48 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.83 | 92.30% | 48 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.83 | 91.81% | 48 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 6.6%extraordinary 0.0%covert 0.0%epic 0.0%covert knife 0.0%Legendary 0.0%gold 0.0%classified 0.4%pink 6.4%restricted 0.8%violet 12.0%mil spec 6.0%Mythical 7.4%#8847ff 5.7%Rare 1.7%uncommon 1.7%blue 8.7%#d32ce6 3.5%#4b69ff 25.5%#5E98D9 6.7%industrial 6.7%best hit —