Falcons team
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$22.18
Advertised RTP
93.98%
EV $20.84 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
110.61%
70 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 70 openings and 11.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 70 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/falcons_team/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $22.18 | 93.98% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $22.33 | 93.35% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $22.33 | 93.70% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.0%covert 6.5%extraordinary 0.6%epic 0.3%classified 7.9%#ffd700 0.0%gold 0.1%sunny 0.1%rare 14.0%Covert 0.2%covert knife 0.2%Immortal 0.3%pink 26.3%red 6.6%Ancient 3.4%Mythical 17.0%restricted 8.2%Legendary 8.3%best hit —