Famas

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$0.86
Advertised RTP
94.08%
EV $0.81 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.53%
106 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
12 openings · below min
7 days
89.53%±24.28106 openings
30 days
89.53%±24.28106 openings
since tracking started
89.53%±24.28106 openings
0.5%73.3%146.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1273.45%±72.1—odds
7d10689.53%±24.3−0.4σodds
30d10689.53%±24.3−0.4σodds
All10689.53%±24.3−0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 159 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 200,000$1170.1%00.0—
FAMAS | Contrast Spray (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 111,111$87.040.1%00.0—
FAMAS | Meltdown (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 66,667$61.710.1%00.0—
FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 32,258$39.500.2%00.0—
FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 17,241$29.270.2%00.0—
FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 5,618$17.990.4%00.0—
FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 2,625$13.650.6%00.1—
FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 1,479$9.860.8%00.1—
FAMAS | Macabre (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 544$8.121.8%00.3—
FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 330$6.442.4%00.5—
FAMAS | Decommissioned (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 128$4.154.0%21.21.61×
FAMAS | Macabre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 100$3.804.7%01.60.00×
FAMAS | Survivor Z (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 74$2.754.6%32.11.40×
FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 65$2.685.1%32.41.23×
FAMAS | Faulty Wiring (Factory New)weapon1 in 65$2.665.1%12.50.41×
FAMAS | CaliCamo (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 57$2.204.7%02.80.00×
FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 28$1.526.7%65.71.05×
FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 21$1.377.9%97.41.21×
FAMAS | Colony (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 24$0.944.9%86.81.18×
FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 15$0.907.4%1210.61.13×
FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 12$0.899.3%1613.51.18×
FAMAS | Survivor Z (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 24$0.814.3%76.81.04×
FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 24$0.673.5%36.80.44×
FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 24$0.562.9%66.80.89×
FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 24$0.542.8%26.80.30×
FAMAS | Halftone Wash (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 24$0.452.4%66.80.89×
FAMAS | Faulty Wiring (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer1 in 24$0.392.0%186.82.66×
FAMAS | Decommissioned (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 24$0.371.9%66.80.89×
FAMAS | Crypsis (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 24$0.311.6%86.81.18×
FAMAS | Crypsis (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 24$0.261.4%66.80.89×
FAMAS | Teardown (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 24$0.251.3%56.80.74×
FAMAS | Halftone Wash (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d91 in 24$0.241.3%76.81.04×
FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 24$0.180.9%76.81.04×
FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 24$0.160.8%76.81.04×
FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 24$0.150.8%66.80.89×
FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 24$0.120.6%56.80.74×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/famas/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.08%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
6 Nov, 05:23 UTC$0.8694.08%36
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$0.8694.00%36
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.1%consumer 8.5%pink 0.3%mil spec 31.1%milspec 4.4%#8847ff 1.5%other 1.5%industrial 14.5%restricted 3.6%#4b69ff 8.9%Rare 12.7%Uncommon 8.5%#5e98d9 4.2%best hit —