Farm asiimov
A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$1.29
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $1.21 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.92%
3,614 openings, odds method
Variance
33.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,903 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $105 | 43.3% | 18 | 19.5 | 0.92× |
| AWP | Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 12 | $3.63 | 25.9% | 348 | 337.4 | 1.03× |
| AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 13.4% | $1.93 | 21.3% | 517 | 521.2 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 77.5% | $0.15 | 9.6% | 3,020 | 3024.9 | 1.00× |
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/farm_asiimov/show, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $1.29 | 94.00% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%restricted 8.6%Mythical 13.4%industrial 77.5%best hit $105 (81.36x)