Farm blaze
A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$7.49
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $7.04 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
116.14%
135 openings, odds method
Variance
33.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 139 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 200 | $614 | 43.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 1 in 12 | $23.07 | 26.8% | 11 | 11.4 | 0.97× |
| Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade | 13.0% | $11.42 | 21.1% | 20 | 18.1 | 1.10× |
| Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical | 78.3% | $0.76 | 8.5% | 107 | 108.8 | 0.98× |
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/farm_blaze/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $7.49 | 94.00% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.5%industrial 8.2%Industrial Grade 13.0%Mythical 78.3%best hit $614 (81.96x)