Farm dragonlore

A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$85.99

Advertised RTP

94.00%

EV $80.83 from 4 items

Observed RTP, 30d

67.29%

35 openings, sample method

Variance

31.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

5 openings · below min

7 days

35 openings · below min

30 days

35 openings · below min

since tracking started

35 openings · below min

-0.5%279.3%559.0%

Small sample. 35 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5	62.68%±495.4	—	odds
7d	35	67.29%±32.9	—	sample
30d	35	67.29%±32.9	—	sample
All	35	67.29%±32.9	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$6,856	42.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10	$238	28.1%	5	3.3	1.50×
AWP \| Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified	14.0%	$128	22.0%	5	4.9	1.02×
AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	76.0%	$7.95	7.5%	25	26.6	0.94×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/farm_dragonlore/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.