Farm fireserpent

A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$8.99

Advertised RTP

94.00%

EV $8.45 from 4 items

Observed RTP, 30d

175.17%

61 openings, odds method

Variance

32.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

23 openings · below min

7 days

61 openings · below min

30 days

61 openings · below min

since tracking started

61 openings · below min

-0.5%159.5%319.5%

Small sample. 61 openings and 5.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	23	41.08%±234.3	—	odds
7d	61	175.17%±143.9	—	odds
30d	61	175.17%±143.9	—	odds
All	61	175.17%±143.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 89 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$726	43.0%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$28.39	27.9%	5	7.4	0.68×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	13.4%	$13.47	21.3%	11	11.9	0.92×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	77.8%	$0.85	7.8%	72	69.3	1.04×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/farm_fireserpent/show, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.