Farm glockfade
A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$16.99
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $15.97 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
62.85%
104 openings, odds method
Variance
33.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 197 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 200 | $1,378 | 43.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 12 | $51.01 | 27.5% | 23 | 17.0 | 1.36× |
| Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 14.3% | $23.46 | 20.9% | 24 | 28.1 | 0.85× |
| Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 76.6% | $1.75 | 8.4% | 150 | 151.0 | 0.99× |
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/farm_glockfade/show, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $16.99 | 94.00% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 14.8%classified 8.6%Mythical 76.6%best hit —