Farm gungnir

A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$105.99

Advertised RTP

94.00%

EV $99.63 from 4 items

Observed RTP, 30d

154.91%

79 openings, sample method

Variance

32.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

30 openings · below min

7 days

79 openings · below min

30 days

79 openings · below min

since tracking started

79 openings · below min

-0.5%269.5%539.5%

Small sample. 79 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	30	334.86%±204.1	—	odds
7d	79	154.91%±199.2	—	sample
30d	79	154.91%±199.2	—	sample
All	79	154.91%±199.2	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 79 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$8,522	42.8%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$315	27.5%	8	6.9	1.16×
AWP \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	13.4%	$160	21.6%	8	10.6	0.75×
AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	77.4%	$10.44	8.1%	62	61.1	1.01×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/farm_gungnir/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.