Farm howl

A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$62.99

Advertised RTP

94.00%

EV $59.21 from 4 items

Observed RTP, 30d

36.95%

5 openings, odds method

Variance

32.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

5 openings · below min

30 days

5 openings · below min

since tracking started

5 openings · below min

-0.5%266.8%534.0%

Small sample. 5 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	5	36.95%±496.6	—	odds
30d	5	36.95%±496.6	—	odds
All	5	36.95%±496.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 200	$5,029	42.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$185	28.6%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classified	13.7%	$94.58	21.9%	1	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	76.7%	$5.45	7.1%	5	4.6	1.09×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/farm_howl/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.