Farm killconfirmed
A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.89
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $0.84 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.12%
2,930 openings, odds method
Variance
27.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,301 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $66.09 | 39.5% | 17 | 16.5 | 1.03× |
| USP-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet | 1 in 11 | $2.68 | 29.6% | 300 | 305.2 | 0.98× |
| USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 14.3% | $1.33 | 22.7% | 507 | 471.5 | 1.08× |
| FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 76.0% | $0.09 | 8.2% | 2,477 | 2507.8 | 0.99× |
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/farm_killconfirmed/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $0.89 | 94.00% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%violet 9.2%mil spec 14.3%#4b69ff 76.0%best hit $66.09 (74.26x)