Farm m 4asiimov
A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.29
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $2.15 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.16%
735 openings, odds method
Variance
30.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 776 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $179 | 41.5% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 12 | $7.29 | 27.9% | 71 | 63.9 | 1.11× |
| M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 13.1% | $3.60 | 21.9% | 107 | 101.7 | 1.05× |
| M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon | 78.2% | $0.24 | 8.7% | 595 | 606.5 | 0.98× |
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/farm_m4asiimov/show, 11 Nov, 22:43 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $2.29 | 94.00% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%restricted 8.2%Legendary 13.1%Uncommon 78.2%best hit $179 (78.00x)