Farm medusa

A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$27.99

Advertised RTP

94.00%

EV $26.31 from 4 items

Observed RTP, 30d

9.61%

8 openings, odds method

Variance

31.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

5 openings · below min

7 days

8 openings · below min

30 days

8 openings · below min

since tracking started

8 openings · below min

-0.5%251.5%503.5%

Small sample. 8 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5	9.61%±493.4	—	odds
7d	8	9.61%±390.0	—	odds
30d	8	9.61%±390.0	—	odds
All	8	9.61%±390.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$2,218	42.2%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$90.19	28.6%	1	0.8	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	13.8%	$40.76	21.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	77.4%	$2.69	7.9%	8	7.0	1.15×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/farm_medusa/show, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.