Farm redline
A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.39
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $0.37 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.05%
17.7K openings, odds method
Variance
28.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 200 | $29.06 | 39.6% | 100 | 99.6 | 1.00× |
| AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 1 in 13 | $1.47 | 29.9% | 1,514 | 1483.6 | 1.02× |
| AK-47 | Uncharted (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare | 13.4% | $0.60 | 21.9% | 2,727 | 2665.7 | 1.02× |
| AUG | Sweeper (Factory New)weapon · Common | 78.7% | $0.04 | 8.6% | 15,573 | 15665.1 | 0.99× |
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/farm_redline/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $0.39 | 94.00% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.5%blue 7.5%Rare 13.4%Common 78.7%best hit $29.06 (74.51x)