Farm vulcan
A case on CSGORUN (farm2026), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$2.39
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $2.25 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.09%
1,024 openings, odds method
Variance
28.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,073 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $180 | 40.0% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× |
| AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 11 | $7.04 | 28.7% | 90 | 98.1 | 0.92× |
| AK-47 | Crossfade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 14.1% | $3.59 | 22.5% | 152 | 151.3 | 1.00× |
| AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon | 76.3% | $0.26 | 8.8% | 829 | 818.3 | 1.01× |
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/farm_vulcan/show, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $2.39 | 94.00% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%mil spec 9.1%#4b69ff 14.1%Uncommon 76.3%best hit $180 (75.19x)