Fireworks
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$3.65
Advertised RTP
93.87%
EV $3.43 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.10%
234 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
51.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 234 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/fireworks/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.65 | 93.87% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.54 | 96.78% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.54 | 94.91% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%legendary 0.0%Covert 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%sunny 0.0%classified 6.0%restricted 5.7%red 0.0%rare 0.0%pink 18.5%Restricted 1.0%Mythical 12.6%#d32ee6 7.2%#8847ff 14.3%violet 14.8%milspec 5.6%mil spec 4.9%Rare 4.8%#5e98d9 4.7%best hit —