Fresh
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$6.58
Advertised RTP
93.95%
EV $6.18 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.27%
213 openings, odds method
Variance
3.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 213 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/fresh/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $6.58 | 93.95% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $6.65 | 92.97% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.65 | 94.28% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%contraband 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%legendary 0.0%classified 25.5%gold 0.0%covert knife 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%sunny 0.0%epic 0.0%rare 0.1%Immortal 0.1%#ffd700 0.3%Legendary 3.1%Ancient 0.4%red 0.5%uncommon 7.4%restricted 23.4%pink 17.7%violet 6.5%#d32ce6 6.2%#8847ff 8.7%best hit —