Fri 13 ouija

A case on CSGORUN (friday13), first seen 12 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$13.00
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $12.22 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
110.54%
177 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
110.54%±13.82177 openings
7 days
110.54%±13.82177 openings
30 days
110.54%±13.82177 openings
since tracking started
110.54%±13.82177 openings
93.5%109.3%125.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 94.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (96.72% – 124.36%, 177 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h177110.54%±13.8+2.3σodds
7d177110.54%±13.8+2.3σodds
30d177110.54%±13.8+2.3σodds
All177110.54%±13.8+2.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 292 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary1 in 500,000$4960.0%00.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 250,000$4170.0%00.0—
★ Talon Knife | Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert1 in 76,923$3070.0%00.0—
★ Talon Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 38,462$2480.1%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 14,706$1890.1%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 7,752$1580.2%00.0—
MAC-10 | Graven (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 3,021$1210.3%00.1—
AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,473$98.200.5%30.2—
Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 958$86.850.7%00.3—
AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 390$67.171.4%00.7—
★ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 244$56.481.9%21.21.67×
★ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 163$48.012.4%11.80.56×
★ Shadow Daggers | Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 151$46.642.5%41.92.07×
★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal1 in 128$43.672.8%22.30.88×
P250 | Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 102$39.873.2%12.90.35×
Glock-18 | Night (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 86$37.123.5%63.41.76×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 66$33.484.1%64.41.36×
MAC-10 | Graven (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 37$26.675.8%77.80.90×
Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 26$23.087.2%1511.21.34×
Desert Eagle | Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 26$23.077.2%1811.21.61×
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 25$22.607.5%1011.80.85×
Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 22$21.568.0%1513.31.13×
MAC-10 | Graven (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 17$19.349.4%1117.40.63×
Desert Eagle | Night (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue1 in 25$12.414.1%1011.80.85×
MAC-10 | Curse (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 25$11.663.8%1511.81.27×
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 25$9.133.0%1111.80.93×
Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 25$9.093.0%911.80.76×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 25$8.282.7%1211.81.02×
MAC-10 | Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 25$6.182.0%1811.81.53×
P250 | Forest Night (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade1 in 25$5.621.9%511.80.42×
FAMAS | Night Borre (Minimal Wear)weapon · #7777771 in 25$5.281.7%1611.81.36×
Glock-18 | Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 25$4.831.6%1011.80.85×
Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec1 in 25$4.241.4%1111.80.93×
CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 25$3.601.2%1211.81.02×
FAMAS | Hexane (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 25$3.021.0%1311.81.10×
G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLight1 in 25$2.951.0%1011.80.85×
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 25$2.550.8%711.80.59×
SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 25$2.230.7%811.80.68×
PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 25$1.980.7%1211.81.02×
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 25$0.540.2%1211.81.02×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/fri13_ouija/show, 12 Nov, 23:45 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
12 Nov, 17:28 UTC$13.0094.00%40
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 1.1%Covert 0.0%covert knife 0.7%restricted 8.1%industrial 9.1%red 0.3%Immortal 0.8%pink 5.0%classified 5.5%#8847ff 2.7%blue 3.8%mil spec 16.6%violet 10.0%light blue 4.0%Legendary 4.0%Consumer Grade 4.0%#777777 4.0%Mil Spec 4.0%#4b69ff 4.0%blueLight 4.0%Rare 8.1%best hit —