Galil

A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$0.79
Advertised RTP
93.14%
EV $0.74 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
103.81%
291 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
7 openings · below min
7 days
103.81%±13.81291 openings
30 days
103.81%±13.81291 openings
since tracking started
103.81%±13.81291 openings
-0.5%74.3%149.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h759.13%±89.0—odds
7d291103.81%±13.8+1.5σodds
30d291103.81%±13.8+1.5σodds
All291103.81%±13.8+1.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 385 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 250,000$1190.1%00.0—
Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 125,000$83.570.1%00.0—
Galil AR | Cerberus (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 62,500$51.260.1%00.0—
Galil AR | Dusk Ruins (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 31,250$30.620.1%00.0—
Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 15,385$26.660.2%00.0—
Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 8,130$19.830.3%00.0—
Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 3,279$13.330.6%00.1—
Galil AR | Firefight (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,460$9.580.9%00.3—
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 637$7.191.5%10.6—
Galil AR | Hunting Blind (Factory New)weapon · consumer1 in 368$5.902.2%21.01.91×
Galil AR | Kami (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 244$4.232.4%21.61.27×
Galil AR | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 103$3.344.4%63.71.61×
Galil AR | Kami (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 80$2.694.6%84.81.66×
Galil AR | Firefight (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 54$2.065.2%77.20.98×
Galil AR | Signal (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 42$1.735.6%129.11.32×
Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 31$1.556.7%1012.20.82×
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 27$1.397.0%1614.21.13×
Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 24$1.176.8%2516.41.53×
Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 14$0.959.3%2927.81.04×
Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 19$0.856.0%2120.01.05×
Galil AR | Control (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 12$0.818.9%2831.00.90×
Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 25$0.713.9%1315.70.83×
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 25$0.643.5%1415.70.89×
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 25$0.583.2%815.70.51×
Galil AR | Akoben (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 25$0.462.5%2015.71.28×
Galil AR | NV (Factory New)weapon · light blue1 in 25$0.412.3%1815.71.15×
Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 25$0.362.0%715.70.45×
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 25$0.311.7%2215.71.41×
Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 25$0.281.5%1115.70.70×
Galil AR | Akoben (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 25$0.261.4%1515.70.96×
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 25$0.211.2%1515.70.96×
Galil AR | Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 25$0.201.1%2015.71.28×
Galil AR | O-Ranger (Factory New)weapon · blueLight1 in 25$0.170.9%1215.70.77×
Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d91 in 25$0.130.7%1215.70.77×
Galil AR | Destroyer (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 25$0.120.7%1915.71.21×
Galil AR | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 25$0.070.4%1215.70.77×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/galil/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.14%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
6 Nov, 05:23 UTC$0.7993.14%36
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$0.7994.00%36
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 9.7%Mythical 17.2%Mil Spec Grade 0.0%rare 0.0%classified 0.0%mil spec 8.2%Legendary 0.2%consumer 0.3%#4b69ff 14.6%Rare 5.0%milspec 12.4%blue 8.1%light blue 4.1%violet 4.1%#5e98d9 8.1%blueLight 4.1%industrial 4.1%best hit —