Godsmonsters

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$147.99

Advertised RTP

92.24%

EV $136.51 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.51%

7 openings, sample method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

7 openings · below min

30 days

7 openings · below min

since tracking started

7 openings · below min

20.0%92.5%165.0%

Small sample. 7 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	7	92.51%±71.8	—	sample
30d	7	92.51%±71.8	—	sample
All	7	92.51%±71.8	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$5,910	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,865	$3,252	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,092	$2,218	1.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 347	$1,382	2.9%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 218	$1,231	4.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 227	$1,152	3.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 45	$534	8.7%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$431	8.7%	1	0.2	—
G3SG1 \| Chronos (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$334	10.3%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	11.9%	$160	13.9%	0	0.8	—
MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	11.7%	$113	9.6%	1	0.8	—
MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	10.6%	$108	8.4%	1	0.7	—
UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	11.0%	$101	8.2%	1	0.8	—
UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$92.75	6.8%	0	0.7	—
UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10	$88.15	6.4%	1	0.7	—
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$49.65	2.7%	1	0.5	—
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 21	$27.38	1.0%	0	0.3	—
Tec-9 \| Hades (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 22	$25.83	0.9%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 26	$19.56	0.6%	0	0.3	—
M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 28	$14.95	0.4%	0	0.2	—

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/godsmonsters/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.