Green
A case on CSGORUN (palette2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$8.99
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $8.45 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.40%
178 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
57.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 94.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (65.49% – 91.31%, 178 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 282 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/green/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $8.99 | 94.00% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%restricted 31.1%#ffd700 0.0%Immortal 0.0%sunny 0.0%covert knife 0.1%covert 0.1%gold 0.2%red 0.6%rare 0.8%classified 13.0%blue 6.1%mil spec 13.6%Rare 6.3%#d32ee6 3.1%Mythical 6.3%violet 6.3%#4b69ff 3.1%Mil Spec Grade 3.1%uncommon 3.1%milspec 3.1%best hit —