Hallucination
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$6.28
Advertised RTP
93.89%
EV $5.90 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.38%
258 openings, odds method
Variance
3.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 258 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/hallucination/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $6.28 | 93.89% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $6.09 | 96.82% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.09 | 94.31% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 6.9%covert 0.2%Ancient 0.5%red 2.1%rare 2.8%classified 20.5%pink 27.8%restricted 12.5%violet 12.3%Mythical 10.2%mil spec 4.1%best hit —