Havoc
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$20.99
Advertised RTP
92.48%
EV $19.41 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.97%
21 openings, sample method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 21 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/havoc/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.48%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $20.99 | 92.48% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $20.99 | 94.00% | 38 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed2 11.5%covert 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%Classified 0.0%classified 0.3%restricted 2.2%Mythical 3.3%violet 1.3%mil spec 9.0%#4b69ff 15.0%consumer 7.0%blue 8.4%Rare 7.6%Mil Spec Grade 7.6%industrial 7.6%Common 3.8%Industrial Grade 11.5%Uncommon 3.8%best hit —